Analysts Provide Conflicting Projections on Bawumia’s Electoral Performance in Ashanti Region
As the 2024 general elections approach, two prominent analysts, Prof. Smart Sarpong and Mussa Dankwah, have offered differing insights into the electoral prospects of Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer, in the Ashanti Region, the party’s traditional stronghold.
Prof. Sarpong’s Optimistic Forecast
Prof. Smart Sarpong, Director of Research and Innovation at Kumasi Technical University, predicts a commanding lead for Dr. Bawumia in the Ashanti Region, with an estimated 75.9% of the votes. His findings emphasize Bawumia’s stronghold in the region, reinforcing the NPP’s aim of maintaining dominance in its electoral backbone.
However, this figure still falls short of the party’s stated goal of achieving 85% voter support in the Ashanti Region.
Prof. Sarpong also highlighted contrasting dynamics in the Greater Accra Region, where he stated that John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) leads with 52.3% of votes, compared to 40.5% for Dr. Bawumia.
In a broader national context, Sarpong’s November 16 poll results showed Dr. Bawumia leading with 49.1% against Mahama’s 45.8%, suggesting a potential first-round victory for one of the two major parties.
Mussa Dankwah’s More Cautious Analysis
Conversely, Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, projects a more modest performance for Dr. Bawumia in the Ashanti Region, pegging his support at 68%. This figure is significantly lower than Prof. Sarpong’s estimate and indicates potential challenges for the NPP in maximizing voter turnout and loyalty in its stronghold.
Dankwah attributed the lower projection to voter dissatisfaction and internal party dynamics, suggesting they could impact the NPP’s usual dominance in the region. He also noted that Mahama’s support in the region has grown, reaching 29%, a notable increase for an NDC candidate in an NPP-dominated area.
“For six weeks, the Ashanti Region has not crossed 68% for Bawumia, even while he was there,” Dankwah stated during a discussion on The Point of View.
Implications for the December 7 Elections
The varying projections underline the high stakes for the NPP in retaining its stronghold in the Ashanti Region while expanding its reach in swing regions like Greater Accra.
Prof. Sarpong’s optimism contrasts sharply with Dankwah’s caution, reflecting broader uncertainties in voter behavior ahead of the elections. Both analysts, however, agree that the December 7 polls will likely be highly competitive, with the outcome potentially decided by narrow margins.
As the campaigns intensify, the divergent analyses highlight the critical importance of voter mobilization in key regions, including Ashanti and Greater Accra, where shifts in support could determine the next government.
